Isaac still somewhat disorganized

Discussion in 'THE CROTON SOCIETY' started by Bullwinkle, Aug 22, 2012.

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  1. Bullwinkle

    Bullwinkle Esteemed Member

    Messages:
    1,460
    Location:
    DAVIE FL
  2. Crazy for Crotons

    Crazy for Crotons Well-Known Member

    Messages:
    2,050
    Location:
    south Tampa, Bokeelia
    The track is slowly shifting east. Hopefully, this trend will continue.
     
  3. Bullwinkle

    Bullwinkle Esteemed Member

    Messages:
    1,460
    Location:
    DAVIE FL
    Just got up and it is looking a little better now.The models seem to be trending more east with every run.The stronger it gets the more likely it is to head east.I will keep sunday open as far as putting up shutters :(


     
  4. Jeff Searle

    Jeff Searle Well-Known Member

    Messages:
    2,754
    Location:
    South Florida, USA
    Mike, I'm not sure on what forcast you saw but,just this morning, south Florida is in the bullseye! YES...lets keep our fingers crossed that it shifts one way or the other.
     
  5. Bullwinkle

    Bullwinkle Esteemed Member

    Messages:
    1,460
    Location:
    DAVIE FL
    We are directly in the middle of the cone but that may not be a bad thing.See below.Monday is either going to be a bad day or a terrible day.We are almost certain to get at least tropical storm force winds.Certainly enough winds to shred my nice big leafed varieties :(
    I remember the dislocation that Wilma caused it was only a borderllne Cat 1-2 when it passed thru.


    The table contains the average track forecast errors organized by decade, for all the forecast periods, and converted from nautical miles into miles.


    Average NHC Atlantic Track Forecast Errors (mi)
    Tropical Storms and Hurricanes



    In the 1970s, the 3-day hurricane track forecast was off by an average of 442 miles. By the close of the first decade of the 2000s, the same 3-day track forecast error had been cut in half and then some, averaging only 177 miles. Comparing the 3-day forecast from the 1970s with that of today, dramatic scientific advancements can be seen over the last 30-40 years.
     
  6. Crazy for Crotons

    Crazy for Crotons Well-Known Member

    Messages:
    2,050
    Location:
    south Tampa, Bokeelia
    The only thing that will spare the state is if the Bermuda High recedes eastward, allowing the storm to make a northerly turn sooner. If the high sits where it is now or noses westward, we're in for a rough stretch.
     
  7. Moose

    Moose Esteemed Member

    Messages:
    7,947
    Location:
    Coral Gables, FL Zone 10b
    I could use the overtime ... :p
     
  8. Rags

    Rags Active Member

    Messages:
    321
    Location:
    Trinidad & Tobago West Indies
    Issac's feeder band currently across the chain of Caribbean islands is hammering Trinidad....... Port of Spain is partially flooded..... :mad:
     
  9. Bullwinkle

    Bullwinkle Esteemed Member

    Messages:
    1,460
    Location:
    DAVIE FL
    Isaac is a weak storm but it is also unusually large for a tropical storm.

     
  10. Moose

    Moose Esteemed Member

    Messages:
    7,947
    Location:
    Coral Gables, FL Zone 10b
    Getting some serious wind gusts for the last 15 minutes ... :eek:
     
  11. Crazy for Crotons

    Crazy for Crotons Well-Known Member

    Messages:
    2,050
    Location:
    south Tampa, Bokeelia
    You heard it here first. The "somewhat disorganized" storm will be a moderately strong Cat 2 before it makes a second Florida landfall.
     
  12. Moose

    Moose Esteemed Member

    Messages:
    7,947
    Location:
    Coral Gables, FL Zone 10b
    Ray - is this your prediction or from one of the models you trust? :confused:
     
  13. Crazy for Crotons

    Crazy for Crotons Well-Known Member

    Messages:
    2,050
    Location:
    south Tampa, Bokeelia
    Ron,

    It's going to sit in the Gulf for a day and a half where water temperatures are 88F.
     
  14. Crazy for Crotons

    Crazy for Crotons Well-Known Member

    Messages:
    2,050
    Location:
    south Tampa, Bokeelia
    Now the official NHC forecast has a Cat 2 approaching the upper Gulf coast Tuesday. I guess a day late isn't so bad.
     
  15. koki

    koki Active Member

    Messages:
    266
    Location:
    pine island, fl
    Wind and rain in Pine Island, and one of the lowest tides I've seen.
     
  16. Jeff Searle

    Jeff Searle Well-Known Member

    Messages:
    2,754
    Location:
    South Florida, USA
    Well.......it's 6:00pm now and I'm sitting here extreamly happy!!! I received 1" of rain yesterday and so far another 3" today. Wind? I can't speak for anyone else, but this storm didn't have the "punch" that they were predicting,IMO. I had very little wind today, maybe 5 ocassional gust of wind, which not even one Bismarckia dead leaf hanging from my palms blew off! So unless things pick up tonight sometime, this storm was not much of anything. And thank God!
     
  17. Phil Stager

    Phil Stager Well-Known Member

    Messages:
    1,644
    Location:
    Sunny St. Pete, FL
    A few wind gusts and 1" of rain; only i Royal Palm frond down. We lucked out again! (other than the party on Saturday).
     
  18. palmisland

    palmisland Well-Known Member

    Messages:
    1,258
    Location:
    West Boca Raton 10b
    Almost 5" rain yesterday & we're up to 4.4" as of 11:00am today, with more on the way. A few 35 mph wind gusts. The only damage was a few broken bamboos. I feel fortunate as it was mainly a rain event for us.
     
  19. Jeff Searle

    Jeff Searle Well-Known Member

    Messages:
    2,754
    Location:
    South Florida, USA
    Monday evening here, it rained up until about 2:00pm today. 9 1/2 " here at the house! And the nursery is pretty damn flooded as well. We need some sun!!!
     
  20. Moose

    Moose Esteemed Member

    Messages:
    7,947
    Location:
    Coral Gables, FL Zone 10b
    Take your air boat to work ... :eek:
     
  21. Bullwinkle

    Bullwinkle Esteemed Member

    Messages:
    1,460
    Location:
    DAVIE FL
    Isaac is trying to do a Freddy Kreuger style comeback of the Gulf Coast.I thought he was dead??
     
  22. Moose

    Moose Esteemed Member

    Messages:
    7,947
    Location:
    Coral Gables, FL Zone 10b
    Hurricane Betsy brushed by our coast then headed north. Over night she did the loop-de-loop and came back and hit South Florida.

    The system formerly known as Isaac traveled quite far inland. Not staying over water - it is very odd to have a system re-emerge after going so far inland and remain viable. Very strange how it doubled back nearly a week later. :rolleyes:

    I hope Bud (Crotons.net) doesn't get any of this system this weekend. I am sure his property is still saturated.
     

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