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December 13th weather

Discussion in 'THE CROTON SOCIETY' started by Crazy for Crotons, Dec 5, 2010.

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  1. Crazy for Crotons

    Crazy for Crotons Well-Known Member

    Messages:
    2,050
    Location:
    south Tampa, Bokeelia
    If the current long range GFS weather model holds true, December 1989 type cold will be making a Florida visit on December 13th or thereabout. When I read this today, my jaw hit the ground. This is still 9 days out so things could change but consider this a potential early warning. Sorry to throw a weather thread on here but when 3 well known national weather services all mention this scenario, it makes me a little nervous.
     
  2. junglegal

    junglegal Esteemed Member

    Messages:
    3,133
    Location:
    St. Pete FL
    I'm giving up growing any type of tropical if this happens. I can't stomach this kind of news upon waking up :mad:
     
  3. ScotTi

    ScotTi Esteemed Member

    Messages:
    4,816
    :mad: I was hoping for a break this winter.
     
  4. fawnridge

    fawnridge Well-Known Member

    Messages:
    1,422
    Location:
    Western Boca Raton
    Get used to it. This is going to be our weather for the next 10 to 15 years. There are all sorts of climatological studies that show the weather cycles. Some go in 50 year patterns, but the most widely regarded as accurate go in 15 to 20 year cycles. The current consensus is that we are around 5 years into the current cycle. I'm giving serious thought to moving further south, much further south.

    Here's one study and you can Google hundreds more, but the basic premise of cooler weather for many years to come is in most of them. (Well, not the one written by Al Gore, though.)
     
  5. ScotTi

    ScotTi Esteemed Member

    Messages:
    4,816
    Bring it on! I planted a few Crotons in diffrent areas of the garden this weekend. Looking for a good mi-cro-climate area for future plantings.
     
  6. Crazy for Crotons

    Crazy for Crotons Well-Known Member

    Messages:
    2,050
    Location:
    south Tampa, Bokeelia
    The long range forecast is not getting warmer. If it's 15F in Jacksonville next Monday night, where does that leave us?????
     
  7. Crotonologist

    Crotonologist Active Member

    Messages:
    761
    Location:
    southern Louisiana USDA 9a
  8. Crazy for Crotons

    Crazy for Crotons Well-Known Member

    Messages:
    2,050
    Location:
    south Tampa, Bokeelia
    That's based on this morning's GFS. Accuweather only updates their 15 day forecast once every morning. Look tomorrow morning.
     
  9. Crazy for Crotons

    Crazy for Crotons Well-Known Member

    Messages:
    2,050
    Location:
    south Tampa, Bokeelia
    From MWS Jacksonville...."A PEEK AT A 12Z GFS SOUNDING
    INDICATED AN 850 MB TEMP OF -10C LATE MON! ECMWF IS NOT TOO
    DIFFERENT." 15F is just a number I threw out there but if 0C is 32F, what's -10C? Not good.
     
  10. Crotonologist

    Crotonologist Active Member

    Messages:
    761
    Location:
    southern Louisiana USDA 9a
    OK, thanks, but I was looking for a source to follow - what's "MWS Jacksonville"?
    - is that from NOAA's forecast discussion maybe?
    - or from the STORM2K website??
    I like to keep an eye on these winter fronts too, so just looking for another source to watch...

    BTW a real easy and quick (and precise) mental conversion for C temps is to double the C temp, subtract 10% then add 32 to get the F temp...
    -10C x 2 = -20 less 10% = -18 then add 32 to get 14F so you were very close :)
     
  11. Crazy for Crotons

    Crazy for Crotons Well-Known Member

    Messages:
    2,050
    Location:
    south Tampa, Bokeelia
  12. Moose

    Moose Esteemed Member

    Messages:
    7,947
    Location:
    Coral Gables, FL Zone 10b
    The difference betwwen 14 F and 15 F makes all the difference when it comes to crotons - NOT! :mad:
     
  13. Moose

    Moose Esteemed Member

    Messages:
    7,947
    Location:
    Coral Gables, FL Zone 10b
    This was posted on Palm Talk - might be helpful? :confused:

    Just wanted to let people know that Harbor Freight is having a sale on greenhouses until 12/31/10 .... plus you can use a 20% off coupon ......

    coupon at: http://dealspl.us/ha...coupons/108017p


    I picked up the 10x12ft for $702.39 out the door.
     
  14. Crotonologist

    Crotonologist Active Member

    Messages:
    761
    Location:
    southern Louisiana USDA 9a
    Hey I was just sharing my own formula for quickly and accurately converting C temps to F temps... :) :rolleyes:
     
  15. Crotonologist

    Crotonologist Active Member

    Messages:
    761
    Location:
    southern Louisiana USDA 9a
    Moose, those are a real deal for the money - is that your first one?
    Here's what I did with mine to provide better ventilation during our hot humid summers, plus I like the extra height inside...
    The deck blocks and boards also give it some much needed extra stability, besides keeping that steel base plate off the wet ground...
    The second photo shows my winter prep...
     

    Attached Files:

  16. Moose

    Moose Esteemed Member

    Messages:
    7,947
    Location:
    Coral Gables, FL Zone 10b

    It was not a comment on your formula, that is most helpful. My comment was meant to convey that frozen is frozen. I have been ice fishing in 12 F weather and the fish are usually frozen solid at that temp in about 1/2 an hour. :)
     
  17. Jeff Searle

    Jeff Searle Well-Known Member

    Messages:
    2,736
    Location:
    South Florida, USA
    Why are we now talking about frozen fish? Jeeze. Hey, will a moose eat a fish if one presents itself?:eek:

    It won't be long now until spring is in the air, and I'm slapping on 15-20 air layers every evening.:)
     
  18. Crazy for Crotons

    Crazy for Crotons Well-Known Member

    Messages:
    2,050
    Location:
    south Tampa, Bokeelia
    Better news that the brutal 1980's type cold may not be coming after all. Here's this morning's discussion from the NWS Melbourne, Fl.

    GFS/ECMWF MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE STORM TRACK AND
    HIGH AMPLITUDE OF ITS ACCOMPANYING SHORT WAVE TROF...THOUGH GFS IS A
    LITTLE FASTER AN MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE SFC LOW. BOTH MODELS...
    HOWEVER...HAVE MADE A LARGE SHIFT AWAY FROM THE COLD AIR OUTBREAK
    THAT THEY WERE SUGGESTING 24HRS AGO.
    THE 09/00Z RUNS NOW INDICATE
    THE H85 0C ISOTHERM NO FURTHER S THAN THE CENTRAL PENINSULA WHEREAS
    THE 08/00Z RUNS TOOK IT CLEAR DOWN TO THE FL KEYS. CORRESPONDING
    MEX MOS TEMPS HAVE WARMED AROUND 10F DEG MON/TUE. IT APPEARS THE
    MODELS ARE KEYING ON A STRONG SRN JET OVER FL (MAX WINDS +140KTS BY
    12Z MON) THAT PUSHES THE BASE OF THE TROF MORE EWD THAN PREV MODEL
    RUNS...THUS PREVENTING THE CRUX OF THE COLD AIR TO ADVECT MUCH
    FURTHER S THAN THE FL PANHANDLE.
     
  19. palmisland

    palmisland Well-Known Member

    Messages:
    1,198
    Location:
    West Boca Raton 10b
    I just checked Accuweather. The predicted low forcast for west Boca Raton, Monday 12/13 has risen from 37 to 42. Go baby, go!:confused:



    Randy
     
  20. Moose

    Moose Esteemed Member

    Messages:
    7,947
    Location:
    Coral Gables, FL Zone 10b
    Anyone know the temperature forecast for December 11th around Glockland? :)
     
  21. Judy Glock

    Judy Glock Active Member

    Messages:
    120
    Ron, As of tonite, it is supposed to be sunny with a high of 78 on Sat. in Ft. Myers. Could not be any better!
     
  22. Moose

    Moose Esteemed Member

    Messages:
    7,947
    Location:
    Coral Gables, FL Zone 10b
    Judy - the weather was perfect for the Croton Holiday Social at your garden. I had an awesome time, thank you. I am anxious about Dec. 13th however. :eek:
     
  23. Crazy for Crotons

    Crazy for Crotons Well-Known Member

    Messages:
    2,050
    Location:
    south Tampa, Bokeelia
    Ron, this kind of cold is nothing especially compared to last year. I deal with freezes of the 30-32F range every few years and nothing aside from ultra tropicals get damaged or killed. Of course, 35F for you guys tends to inflict more damage because your plants aren't as hardened off. The worst that comes from 35F is some partial or total croton defoliation but nothing the plant won't grow out of come spring.
     

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